TRADE POLICY ANALYSIS
SOURCES AND ANALYSIS OF DATA

CD6 Syllabus                                                                           Course Structure Index
Professor Armando Rodriguez

Goals

 Students will understand common statistical concepts, tools, and data sources to critically analyze as well as utilize quantitative approaches to trade policy analysis. 

 The objective of this course is not to train statisticians or econometricians.  It is designed to provide the necessary skills—including an understanding of the availability, sources and quality of quantitative and qualitative domestic and international data—to critically analyze many of the issues typically present in international policy matters. 

 We will learn the basics of Microsoft Excel 5.0, MS Word, Netscape and how to work the Net.  The objective is to find and use data sources available either in hardcopy or on the net; to manipulate, analyze and present research results in an integrated manner. 

Approach

 Students will complete a mid-term and a  final examination as well as several worksheets which reflect topics discussed in class. 

 In addition, we will examine various instances in which statistical analysis has been used to address often controversial issues in international trade and competition policy.  Specifically, we will attempt to reproduce and present the results of analytical contributions to the debates.  This process requires an understanding of the concepts underscoring each issue, locating and gathering necessary data and the appropriate empirical analysis. 

Text and Materials

 Schaum’s Outline Series: Statistics and Econometrics

Access to MS Excel 5.0, MS Word 6.0 and Netscape

The following books are also useful references:

Townsend & Wheatley, Developing Skills in Statistics (1978)

Herzon & Hooper, Introduction to Statistics for the Social Sciences (1976)

Ingram, Introductory Statistics (1976)

Criteria for Evaluating Teaching And Student Performance

 There will be two exams, a mid-term and a final, several homework exercises and a case study.  Each exam is 20% of the grade, homework accounts for 40% and the case study is worth 20%. 

 Students will evaluate the instructor’s performance at the end of the session on a number of criteria including clarity, availability and grasp of the material.

Schedule

Statistical Methods for Trade Policy Analysis

Week 1:            October 8 & 9

 Read: Schaum’s Chapters 1 & 2

 Introduction to Statistical Concepts and Topics

                                     A.  Sample Data

                                    B.  Estimation and Hypothesis Testing

                                    C.  Probability

                                    D.  Regression Analysis

E.  Special Topic: Introduction to MS Excel 5.0

                                    F.  Special Topic: Introduction to MS Word

G.   Special Topic: Introduction to Netscape and the Internet

H.    Special Topic: Introduction to SPSS/Statgraphics

I.        Sources of Data: Web Sites & Hardcopy

Basic Statistical Concepts

                                     A.  Presentation and Description of Data

                                    B.  Measures of Location

                                    C.  Measures of Dispersion

                                    D.  Interpreting the Standard Deviation

                                    E.  The Coefficient of Variation

Week 2:            October 15 & 16

 Read: Schaum’s Chapter 3

 Probability Theory

                                    A.  Introduction to Basic Concepts

                                    B.  The Mathematical Model

                                    C.  The Addition Rule

                                    D.  The Multiplication Rule

                                    E.  Bayes Theorem

Probability Distributions

                                     A.  Random Variables

                                    B.  Expected Value of Random Variables

                                    C.  Covariance

                                    D.  The Normal Distribution

                                    E.  The Binomial Distribution: The Normal Approximation

F.    Sampling Distributions

Week 3:             October 22 & 23

  Read: Schaum’s Chapters 4-5

 Estimation and Hypothesis Testing

                                     A.  Estimation

                                                1.  Point Estimation

                                                2.  Interval Estimation: Confidence Limits

                                                3.  Small Sample Estimation

                                     B.  Hypothesis Testing

                                                1.  Small Sample Testing

                                                2.  Testing the Difference Between Two Means

                                                3.  Paired Data: The Sign and Paired Difference Tests

                                                4.  Paired Data: the Sign and Paired Difference Tests

                                                5.  The Chi Square Test

 Week 4:             October 29 & 30

 Read: Schaum’s Chapters 6, 7 & 8

 Understanding Correlation and Regression Analysis

                                     A.  Correlation

                                    B.  Bivariate Regression

                                    C.  Assumptions of the Regression Model

                                    D.  Confidence Intervals and Significance Testing

                                    E.  Analysis of Residuals

F.    Multiple Regression

Week 5:            November 5 & 6

Case Studies

                        1.              Do Imports Discipline Prices?

                        2.              Dumping: The Case of Steel

                        3.            The US Dollar and World Oil Markets

4.            Did Exchange Rate Appreciation De-industrialize the US Economy?

                        5.            TBA

                        6.            Individual Project